Quote:
The Farmers' Almanac's website explains that its forecaster (referred to only by his pseudonym, Caleb Weatherbee) uses a "top secret mathematical and astronomical formula, that relies on sunspot activity, tidal action, planetary position and many other factors" to predict weather sixteen months in advance for seven different U.S. climate zones.
and here I thought it was because they hired Nostradamus to write each year.
"Every day is a new day to a better future"
"Of all the things that matter, that really and truly matter, working more efficiently and getting more done is not among them." ~ Mike Dooley
"What if I told you that you couldn't have anymore of anything... No more friends, no more money, no more anything, until you first got happy with what you have?"~ Mike Dooley
"The only true wisdom is in knowing you know nothing." ~ Socrates
What happened to the Global warming?Originally Posted by Cannibal
Most assuredly good news to me!
According to the Farmer's Almanac, this coming winter is going to be a brute.
Not to be a downer, but no matter how complicated your equations, your ability to predict events that far in advance is essentially zero, and will remain zero as long as the universe operates under its current laws.That's because they don't use the Original Farmer's Almanac 1
All equations for weather forecasting are nonlinear. In fact, they are INCREDIBLY nonlinear. In some senses, the more complicated you make the equations, the worse it gets. The problem is this - most complicated nonlinear equations, except for some very small class of equations with a strong attractor, are chaotic. Chaotic equations are characterized by one very simple fact, that makes life a pain in the neck for anyone trying to use them...
They are exponentially sensitive to initial conditions. What does that mean in layman's terms? Well, suppose you have a chaotic equation that is accurate to within 10% after one day. Given the simplest possible picture of exponential growth, after two days, it will be accurate to within 100%, after three days, 1000%, and so on....
Take two almost identical sets of initial conditions - one with the numbers tweaked just slightly, and the predicted weather patterns will diverge exponentially - at the beginning, their predictions will be almost the same, and as things carry forward, those predictions will become more and more widely removed, until one is calling for snow and the other is calling for a warm sunny day.
Any semblance of accuracy in the farmer's almanac comes from one of two sources - one, their predictions are so vague that it's easy to say "hey that was right!" after the fact. This is the same way horoscopes and fortune cookies work.
The other source is the true method by which the almanac works - historical data. That is, you aren't really predicting anything, you are just counting on things being close enough to past trends that you look "right enough" to convince people of your accuracy. If I say it's going to snow in Colorado sometime between December 25 and January 10th, I've got a pretty good chance of being right, but I haven't predicted anything, I've just played the odds.
Ok, that's enough pedantic ranting, but as a scientist, I wish more folks would put their trust in proven, peer-reviewed, experimentally verified scientific research, and not folksy nonsense based on tricky wording and "top secret formulas".
Oh. You spoiled the fun.
Knotty
"Don't speak unless it improves the silence." -proverb
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Trust nobody!
I guess I got spanked....
I may be slow... But I sure am gimpy.
"Bless you child, when you set out to thread a needle don't hold the thread still and fetch the needle up to it; hold the needle still and poke the thread at it; that's the way a woman most always does, but a man always does t'other way."
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Well then I do not have tot worry about it. I have never been any farther west than Birmingham AL nor any farther North than Nashville TN
Hey Mustardman,
So tell us, what do you think of Santa and the Easter Bunny?
"Every day is a new day to a better future"
"Of all the things that matter, that really and truly matter, working more efficiently and getting more done is not among them." ~ Mike Dooley
"What if I told you that you couldn't have anymore of anything... No more friends, no more money, no more anything, until you first got happy with what you have?"~ Mike Dooley
"The only true wisdom is in knowing you know nothing." ~ Socrates
I'm not ready to form an opinion until I see some verified, documented, analyzed evidence either for or against these so-called holiday charactersSo tell us, what do you think of Santa and the Easter Bunny?
I hereby call for all of your Christmas presents....I'm not ready to form an opinion until I see some verified, documented, analyzed evidence either for or against these so-called holiday characters
Cannibal can have your Easter candy
"Every day is a new day to a better future"
"Of all the things that matter, that really and truly matter, working more efficiently and getting more done is not among them." ~ Mike Dooley
"What if I told you that you couldn't have anymore of anything... No more friends, no more money, no more anything, until you first got happy with what you have?"~ Mike Dooley
"The only true wisdom is in knowing you know nothing." ~ Socrates
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