Will you have temps down to the low teens where you live before your hike? Living in MA you are pretty lucky in being able to test this stuff out. We didn't have many cold days, so I had to guess. Starting late March you can still get into the low teens a couple of times like Coffee said.
Plus he's right about the body fat thing, and it sucks. I'm 6 ft and weighed 155 when I started, and was down to 140 when I finished. At one point I was wearing all of my clothes and shivering in 60 degrees sitting in a shelter. Luckily with a NOBO hike you won't see the lows up north that you see in the south. So if you can get into the low teens for the south, you will feel the same amount of coldness when it gets down to 30 degrees near the end of your hike.
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