Seeking opinions for this weekend / NX 250

I have an overnighter planned for this weekend at Bearwaller Gap near Carthage, TN. The weather is forcasted to be around 33 degrees for a low with snow showers. I am planning on using my Big Agnes Lost Ranger Down Bag (15 degrees) with a Big Agnes Air core pad. I have slept with this set up down to about 40 degrees and did ok. Any thoughts as to whether I will be able to avoid CBS?
I will be using my NX-250 with clothing stuffed in the pockets. Also considering using my windsheild reflector as additional insulation under the sleeping pad.
Any thoughts would be helpful as I really don't want to go to ground with my tent.

If you can, bring along a closed cell pad and if you feel cold, put between you and the air core in the big Agnes pad pouch.

Take a pic and post what you end up with!

Good luck,
Beltwaybandit158

Is it an insulated air core or just an air core? I have an insulated air core which is rated to 15 degrees. The regular air core is rated to 35 degrees I believe.

+1 on what but I would put the air core in the pouch and supplement laying it on the CCF so you dont have it sliding around. The CCF should stay put better than the air core. And I would only put about 1/2 the air in the air core. Windshield reflector should work as well if you do not have CCF

Have a great time, I will be out myself this weekend. Calling for single digits at night here in Ohio :)

Thanks for the suggestions! I have the insulated air core. I will post some pics and a little trip report next week.
My last trip was in the Smokies last October and I only took the windshield reflector. I was a little uncomfortable when the temps dropped to the high
30's. With that experience, I should be ok with the air core.
Thanks again!

Just remember to leave some ventilation room when you close the weather shield. You should do fine with that set up, and have fun!