Do you prepare for record cold temps, despite some recent years of warmer than average weather?

[BillyBob58]

If you are hiking in on a trip where a quick bail out would at the very least be very inconvenient, if not nearly impossible, do you prepare for the absolute worse known to have ever happened? And even then, who is to say a new record could not be established for a given time period?

Or do you prepare simply for reasonably expected temps, realizing that if something very unusual occurs, you probably won't die or even get frost bite, but might have a miserable night? Kind of like my first night ever in a hammock camping, in the high lonesome/Rockies. The early Sept 2006 low of 22F was not unexpected, I have experience 15F same time of year and lots of 20f. The surprise for me was the new skills and tricks involved in staying warm in a hammock. I did shiver until I abandoned the hammock for the ground about 0200(then warmed right up), which was very unpleasant, but I didn't die, obviously. However, if one looks at record temps for anywhere, it can really add to what would be needed for comfort. But maybe not for survival.

Here is what has me thinking about this. Because of the long running debates on the subject of global warming(which we don't need to have now), I have for years, every time I read the local paper, been noting the record lows and highs for Tupelo, MS. The main thing I note is that is has been years since we even broke 100F here, and this used to be a regular summer time occurrence, even well above 100F(actual temp not "feels like"). (record high 111F, July 29, 1930, 90 years ago)

The next thing I note is that the vast majority of the daily high temp records were set in the the 1950s to the 1930s or even earlier. ( though we do have some set in more recent years) Record lows seem to be all over the place, with a whole bunch set in both the 30s and 70s. The 70s is when scientists were declaring that a new ice age was upon us, after 30 years of lowering temps, then some one flipped a switch in 1980, right after I had moved from frigid Erie, PA down here to Tupelo, MS and we got a 103F in September! That was a horrible summer and even fall!

For example, in today's almanac: I see that we were 8ºF warmer than average at 61F yesterday, but the record was set at 75F in 1975, only 45 years ago. In recent days, I have noticed quite a few record high temps in the 1930s. But I was in for a shock. Apparently I had not checked on this day for recent years. The record low for Jan 27 was set in 1940. Not unusual. But that temp was minus 14F, with a MS town closer to the TN border clocking in at minus 19F!(actually, that temp was set Jan 30, 1966, when I was in HS) WHAT? Minus 19F? On the MS Gulf coast beaches it was +4F!

This was a surprise to me. I do remember a 3 or maybe 6 below a few times in my life down south. But I have no memory(of course, I wouldn't have memory for anything earlier than mid 1950s) of even hearing about minus teens or right at minus 20.

So it looks like if I wanted to be comfy even in the worst Jan weather MS had ever dredged up, I would have to head out prepared for minus 20F. Which is something I have never done and probably never will(but I have on my western mountain trips, even when not dead of winter). And I don't plan to change that. So apparently my choice is to be well prepared for reasonably possible temps, but not the all time records, not for the worst thing that has ever happened during a given month. I guess I'll just have a cold night if it hits the fan that bad. Or, if in a hammock, just go to ground, as I have had to do before. Once.

What about you guys? What do you plan for, especially when you have to carry the weight and bulk on your back. and maybe up steep mountains?

[MAD777]

I check weather forecast from 3 different sources, then take the lowest and subtract 10°. I have 3 quilt sets ranging from summer weight to a solid zero. I pack the next lowest set, based on my calculation above.
Long range climate data would be a good guide for purchasing quilts.

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[jeff-oh]

I just look at the NWS predictions for the nearest weather station and then drop the low by 5* / 1000 ft. and prep for that. But for Hammock purposes I have 2 sets. One 0*F UQ and one 35*F UQ and one 20*F TQ and one 40*F top quilt. Basically a winter/spring/Fall set and Late Spring/Summer/Early Fall set. I augment with clothing layers, as needed.

[OneClick]

I check weather forecast from 3 different sources, then take the lowest and subtract 10°. I have 3 quilt sets ranging from summer weight to a solid zero. I pack the next lowest set, based on my calculation above.
Long range climate data would be a good guide for purchasing quilts.

That's a pretty good plan. I do about the same thing. As much as people make fun of the weather guys, the temps are USUALLY pretty hard to mess up. NWS is very good a few days out and I trust it. Emphasis on "usually", because I know everyone is going to chime in with a story on how the forecast was 25° off. I get it, it happens. We don't need to get into that.

Now the precip is another story. They'll all pull a 180 on you in the blink of an eye. Lots of science involved that I don't think we'll figure out even 200 years from now, so I can't blame them. If a bear poops in the wrong spot in Russia, it totally changes our weather. It's just annoying when the forecast changes so much over a short period of time.

[cougarmeat]

I just finished a great book called Expeditions Unpacked. It's coffee table size and, along with a representative photo of some of the gear, it gives a four to five page description of the adventure - be it traveling to the Poles, circumnavigation the globe, kayaking down rivers, etc.

Most the accomplishments were done with none of the state-o-art gear we have now. Also, a friend of mine, Lute Jerstad, had to spend the night on Everest at 28,000 ft. My point of mentioning that is when giving seminars, Lute would say that if he read survival books he would have died because none of them would say survival was possible. I forget to mention, they didn't have a tent or sleeping bag. Point is - he and Berry Bishop lay there in the snow and decided they were going to be alive in the morning - not give up. I've no idea about conditions in other scenarios where people have perished but here in the PNW, people died of hypothermia after one night - they still had food in their pack and each other to huddle against. Lute would say that attitude makes all the difference.

That said, if you hiked in, you can hike out. There is no requirement to stay. BillyBob58 framed this thread with, "...where a quick bail out would at the very least be very inconvenient, if not nearly impossible..." so maybe "hiking out" is cheating the question.

Perhaps the perspective needed is that this suprise bad weather is not going to jump out at you from behind a door. Things are going to go from good to bad to worse and somewhere along the way you can make a decision. It's hopeful that we survive the learning experiences our adventure give us along the way.

For example, back in the day (50 years ago mind you) when I climbed Mt. Hood in jeans, it started to sprinkle. I didn't put on my rain jacket because, after all, it was just a sprinkle - might as well wait until it's really raining to put on rain gear. And it got wetter and wetter - with less visibility as "white out" conditions developed. Finally my climbing partner and I stopped to reconsider and I went to put on my rain jacket. My pack just had zippers and I had to take my hands out of my gloves to work them. Turns out, they'd become numb and useless when exposed to the cold for more than a few seconds. What would have take only a few seconds during the sprinkle, now took about 15 or 20 minutes as I'd take the pack off, unzip a pocket, pull out the jacket, put it on, and zip it up. At each step I had to put my gloves back on until my figures warmed up enough to move again.

When I got home, I put pull cords on all my zippers so I could open them with my teeth. And now, at the slightest hint of rain, I have my rain gear out.

When kayaking, I like to consult three sources of weather/tide/currents information with a goal of finding two that agree. I would plan for the expected weather and if it became much worse than anticipated, I would bail out. When that decision would be made depends on the extraction method - paddling the shore, paddling open water, hiking a trail. Note that I'm not saying I'd avoid "bad" weather - it can be fun to wait out a storm, listening to the pitter-pat of the ran, having wind gusts rock the hammock.

It's unfortunate that the tag line for what is happening started out as "Global Warming" because people tend to forget the "Global" part. Climate "Change" can hardly be denied. And that change does make it difficult to use past experience about an area/season. This weekend - in Feb (one of the coldest months around here), we will have two days above 60 degrees. But we've also had uncommon weeks in single digits. So I can't use "past experience" of weather conditions. Though the Forecast numbers can be off, usually the direction of the weather is correct. They don't say it's going to snow or be 15 degrees and we are surprised with and 80 degree summer day. And if they say 80 percent change of showers that doesn't turn out to be a force 3 hurricane.

So there are inaccuracies in the weather predictions but I can't remember one what was off by so much that my gear was entirely inadequate. Usually it was my decision making. Once I climbed Mt Adams and I didn't bring any kind of wind breaker. The sky was clear as it was supposed to be, the sun was out - but I underestimated the wind. So I stuffed my CF sit pad in the front of my jacket. That was enough to block the heat robbing wind and allow me to complete the climb. When I got home, I bought a light, nylon "wind shirt" and I ALWAYS have it with me when I'm on any long adventure.

[MikekiM]

I check weather forecast from 3 different sources, then take the lowest and subtract 10°. I have 3 quilt sets ranging from summer weight to a solid zero. I pack the next lowest set, based on my calculation above.
Long range climate data would be a good guide for purchasing quilts.

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This^^^^^^

....for Hammock purposes I have 2 sets. One 0*F UQ and one 35*F UQ and one 20*F TQ and one 40*F top quilt. Basically a winter/spring/Fall set and Late Spring/Summer/Early Fall set. I augment with clothing layers, as needed.

That’s an interesting quilt lineup.. I like it

For the low end you can do the 0F/20F combo with down pants and jacket. That’s what I do, but I have the matching sets except for the 0F..



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[BillyBob58]

Wow, lots of good responces. I see most folks do what I do most of the time: Look at the forecast for the trip, which is usually a shorter trip of a day to 3 or 4 before having any civilization and heated shelters. Then plan for the forecast low temps plus some amount of degrees lower(planning for between 5 to 20 below what is forecast). And that is a pretty safe way to go, if it all goes terribly wrong relative the forecast, as long as I can stay pretty dry and out of the wind, I'm probably going to be OK. I might end up with a cold night, but not likely even that. And I usually have my secret weapon as one of my layers anyway, which if I use it, it might get me another 20F, i.e. VBs.

So, that is about what I do also, but the problem comes in for the longer trips. Like the time many years ago when I was in the shelter free wilderness for 30 days straight(or at least just barely outside the border of the wilderness for a few hours on a few days to pick up new food supplies which had been cached there). We probably didn't even have a weather forecast for the first week, though I suppose some one checked it. But it's not like we were going to cancel no matter how bad it was. And if it was good, it might all be terrible in a week or three. So, basically, all planning for that trip was based on historical summer time records about what would not be the least surprising if it happened. We were prepared to at least survive into the teens or lower with lots of rain and/or snow. And we were prepared to be wet. We got 24F and a good bit of wind driven snow. We got wet. I had one miserable night during the 30 days(did not occur to me to use my rain gear as VB and/or a hot water bottle, in which case I would have been fine even on that bad night) I think every other night I was warm enough.

OTOH, I have only done one trip where I was far from civilization for 30 days. I probably never will again. Though a buddy is pressuring me to do the high route for those same mountains this summer. If I give in and do it, it will probably be well over a week, probably at least two or more, since we are not speedy anymore. That is long enough to have to go by historical norms rather than only by forecast.

Cougarmeat: "For example, back in the day (50 years ago mind you) when I climbed Mt. Hood in jeans".

I maybe know how that can go. I've climbed Hood's neighbor Mt. Baker(to the top) once in summer (sleeping in a tent) and once in mid December(lower down probably at about the 5000 or 6K level) sleeping in snow caves . But only 32 years ago, not 50. However, I was not in jeans. I had all synthetic layers top and bottom, covered with GoreTex. But on other trips, I have been challenged by cold hands vs gear. It can mess things up!

[jeff-oh]

That’s an interesting quilt lineup.. I like it
For the low end you can do the 0F/20F combo with down pants and jacket. That’s what I do, but I have the matching sets except for the 0F..

The 1st weekend of 2018 we camped at Mohican State Forest here in Ohio. It got down to -6F For that I do like Shug show in his videos and doubled up my gear and used a pad too. I was warm.

When I was a kid we camped and it got down to -20 with wind chills to -50. My Scoutmaster at age 23 was a 1st lieutenant in the US Navy and captain of a LST that made 3 landings on Omaha 6-6-44. He taught us to tackle problems head on. We ended up putting the 6 man dome tents inside of the 8 man dome tents. Then piled 9 or 10 boy in it. We were like cord wood, but we stayed very warm.

As was said before attitude it key.

[LearnedHat]

I hope people did this year

[QiWiz]

The longer the trip (and therefore the more unpredictable the weather extremes), the more I will prepare for temps lower than predicted. For a weekend trip, I generally prepare for what the weather is predicted to be without concern that something unpredicted and freaky might hit the area I'm in.