I think it's much better to get a pack you know will carry everything you'll need to have on a long trip or winter trip, and use your own experience and self-control to not fill it for the sake of filling it on shorter trips.
I'm often frustrated when I have to resort to using my older but larger pack when the gear I need for a trip won't fit in my newer, smaller pack.
Of course, the real solution is to buy several packs in different sizes!
Take it easy,
desmobob
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