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  1. #111
    Senior Member angrysparrow's Avatar
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    I guess it's about time I chimed in on this thread. I'll be there, as usual. Looking forward to seeing lots of you again. Not certain of arrival time yet though.

    I'm on the sheet with a BB for the raffle.

    Hoping for some snow!
    “I think that when the lies are all told and forgot the truth will be there yet. It dont move about from place to place and it dont change from time to time. You cant corrupt it any more than you can salt salt.” - Cormac McCarthy

  2. #112
    Senior Member bonsaihiker's Avatar
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    I was looking around (hopefully) on weather sites to try to get a feeling for what might come. I know it's early, and anything could happen between now and the hang, but I was curious to see the trends. If anyone else is also curious, here are a couple maps and some text from the NOAA long-range forecast page.

    8-14 DAY OUTLOOK FOR JAN 11 - 17 2013

    THE SPREAD AMONG ENSEMBLE MEMBERS FOR THE MEAN 500-HPA HEIGHTS PREDICTED FOR
    THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD IS QUITE LOW FOR A WEEK-TWO FORECAST. THE MAIN DIFFICULTY
    EXPECTED FOR TODAY'S FORECAST CONCERNS THE EASTWARD EXTENT OF COLD AIR
    ASSOCIATED WITH THE DEEPENING TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN CONUS. THE HIGH
    RESOLUTION GFS MODELS CONTINUE TO FAVOR A TROUGH AXIS FARTHER EAST THAN
    PREDICTED BY THE GFS, ECMWF, OR CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEANS. TELECONNECTIONS FAVOR
    THE ENSEMBLE MEAN SOLUTIONS SO THE HIGH RESOLUTION GFS MODEL WAS NOT INCLUDED
    IN THE BLEND, HOWEVER THE SOLUTIONS ARE FACTORED INTO THE OUTLOOK THROUGH LOW
    PROBABILITY ANOMALIES IN THE EAST-CENTRAL PART OF THE COUNTRY.

    ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE MOST LIKELY TO PERSIST IN THE EAST AHEAD OF THE
    TROUGH, WHILE THE CHANCES FOR BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE SUBSTANTIALLY
    ELEVATED IN THE WEST. A SHARP TEMPERATURE GRADIENT WITH POTENTIAL FOR STORM
    DEVELOPMENT IS LIKELY FOR THE CENTRAL PART OF THE COUNTRY, WITH THE DETAILS
    DEPENDING ON SHORT WAVES THAT ARE BEYOND THE RANGE OF RELIABLE PREDICTION AT
    THIS TIME. HENCE, A RELATIVE LARGE AREA OF THE EASTERN CONUS IS UNDER ELEVATED
    CHANCES FOR ABOVE MEDIAN PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS NEAR AND AHEAD OF AN EXPECTED
    MEAN FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THE CHANCES OF BELOW MEDIAN PRECIPITATION ARE ELEVATED
    FOR MUCH OF THE WEST IN THE ANTICIPATED COLD AIR NEAR AND TO THE WEST OF THE
    TROUGH. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND ABOVE MEDIAN PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS ARE
    FAVORED FOR MUCH OF MAINLAND ALASKA IN EXPECTED ANOMALOUSLY SOUTHERLY UPPER
    LEVEL FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE RIDGE PREDICTED OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA.

    THE OFFICIAL 8-14 DAY HEIGHT PROG CONSISTS OF: 20 PERCENT OF TODAY'S 0Z GFS
    ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11...20 PERCENT OF TODAY'S 6Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN
    CENTERED ON DAY 11...40 PERCENT OF TODAY'S 0Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED
    ON DAY 11...AND 20 PERCENT OF TODAY'S 0Z CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY
    11.

    FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD IS: ABOVE AVERAGE, 4 OUT OF 5, DUE
    TO GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT.

    FORECASTER: DAVE UNGER
    Attached Images Attached Images
    Last edited by bonsaihiker; 01-04-2013 at 15:39.
    --Scott <><

    "I fish because I love to; because I love the environs where trout are found, which are invariably beautiful... because, in a world where most men seem to spend their lives doing things they hate, my fishing is at once an endless source of delight and an act of small rebellion; because trout do not lie or cheat and cannot be bought or bribed or impressed by power, but respond only to quietude and humility and endless patience...." --Robert Traver

  3. #113
    Kanguru's Avatar
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    Ramon's Calender...

    as good a guess as anywhere else. Stormy for the 17th and then Fair for 20th.
    Also showing snow for the 13th.
    Gentle raindrops and mighty oceans...neither can exist without the other.
    Time heals all wounds...but it usually leaves a pretty big scar.

  4. #114
    Senior Member BFGMofo's Avatar
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    So I am just now reading about this hang and I want in. What do I need to do to get signed up? Is this car camping or is it a pack in trip?

  5. #115
    Doctari's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by BFGMofo View Post
    So I am just now reading about this hang and I want in. What do I need to do to get signed up? Is this car camping or is it a pack in trip?
    Go to the Mt Rogers planning spreadsheet To sign up.

    This is a (mostly) car camping event, but some of us show up on Thursday & do various overnight trips. So I suppose the real answer to "car camping or pack in?" is YES!
    When you have a backpack on, no matter where you are, you’re home.
    PAIN is INEVITABLE. MISERY is OPTIONAL.

  6. #116
    Senior Member BFGMofo's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Doctari View Post
    Go to the Mt Rogers planning spreadsheet To sign up.

    This is a (mostly) car camping event, but some of us show up on Thursday & do various overnight trips. So I suppose the real answer to "car camping or pack in?" is YES!
    Just signed up and will be there Thursday through Sunday. Sounds like a great hang and can't wait to meet everyone.

  7. #117
    Doctari's Avatar
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    Kool!!!

    Is everyone packed? I'm working on it,,, would join the procrastinators club, but I keep putting it off.

    I did modify my pulk for use Thursday & Friday: I just (Finally!) finished adding skis & a lid of sorts to my old pulk (a kids plastic sled I put to use). First the lid: I had bought 2 sleds same make & model, with the plan to use the 2nd one as a spare. Got to looking a few years ago & figured I could turn #2 upside down on #1 & have a lid. couldn't figure out a way to open & close it. I finally just bolted it in place & cut a hole.
    A few years ago I found some downhill skis on Craig's list for $5.00, so I got them, finished putting them on a few minutes ago. Yea, they track like a dream, , , in a straight line, nearly regardless of how or where I go. Oh well, only use it once a year, should do fine. & It do pull easier.
    When you have a backpack on, no matter where you are, you’re home.
    PAIN is INEVITABLE. MISERY is OPTIONAL.

  8. #118
    New Member grumpy ol tiger's Avatar
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    Oops! I didn't realize there was a spreadsheet. Pulk?! Is there enough snow? Do I need one of those?

  9. #119
    Senior Member angrysparrow's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by grumpy ol tiger View Post
    Is there enough snow? Do I need one of those?
    Nah, the group site is right by the parking.

    If there's enough snow, a pulk would certainly make carrying plenty of gear on the trail nicer, but not necessary.
    “I think that when the lies are all told and forgot the truth will be there yet. It dont move about from place to place and it dont change from time to time. You cant corrupt it any more than you can salt salt.” - Cormac McCarthy

  10. #120
    Doctari's Avatar
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    Yea, the pulk is only cause I'm hiking some distance Thursday & Friday. It makes carrying extra / winter gear so much easier. For the most part, not needed for this get together.
    I, as in ME only, will use it at the campground, but only cause I camp quite a ways from the parking lot & I'll already have the pulk anyway!
    If no snow, It may (may not) stay in the Jeep.

    One year, didn't need it going in to the back-country site on Thursday, did coming out Sunday.
    When you have a backpack on, no matter where you are, you’re home.
    PAIN is INEVITABLE. MISERY is OPTIONAL.

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