But I've got to where I don't commit to any hikes/camps very far in advance anymore, because I have had to bail on so many the last few years. So I tend not to say "I'm coming" until very near the event when the odds seem very good of me actually showing up.
The other factor is my ability to hike. I have been meaning to, and am actually going to, start a new thread related to that very subject. For the short version here, I am recently very encouraged about me being able to join a hike without the other guys nearly needing to carry me out. ( getting in is usually OK, it's the next day or two where there has been a problem). But things are really looking up on that. In the last week or two I did first ( with light pack) 2 miles with no issues the next day, then 3 and then 5, with almost no problems other than normal out of shape muscle problems which I don't care about. So it looks really good, but I would like a bit more confirmation before committing to any type of group hike. Don't want to be a drag to the other hikers! ( Last 2 hikes out of the Sipsey, and out of the Sawtooths, I have very slowly limped out, with a ridiculous amount of wailing and gnashing of teeth with every step! Don't want to subject anyone to that!)